The recovery process of the Brazilian cotton production reaches the level of euphoria. According to Miguel Biegai analyst Safras & Mercado, the time set by the producer price reached earlier this month, when the cotton contracts maturing in May and reached a peak of 84.60 cents a pound in New York. Closed in July to 84 cents a pound.
To Biegai, although today the price was falling (82.83 cents / lb), the price is historically considered good and should not be sustained for long. "Who has to stop with cotton in May and July the time is now. The horse is already taught passing, we must take it by the tail," he said.
Moreover, according to João Carlos Jacobsen, president of the Bahia of Cotton Producers (ABAP), the trading companies and the industry are buying only for immediate consumption. "It is happening a lot of liquidity," he said.
For Jacobsen, this is a particular moment and passenger. Since, according to the analyst, futures contracts maturing in October reached the maximum price of 76.84 cents a pound - the price marked by concentration of the world crop that occurs in the month. "The industry will not pay more to sell more cheaply later. They are reducing inventory, at least until the value back to the level of 70 cents a pound," said the president of ABAP.
This discrepancy for Biegai occurred due to a projection of the Department of Agriculture (USDA) of high global demand, driven mainly by China for the first half of 2010.
According Haroldo Rodrigues da Cunha, president of the Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers (Abrapa), the industry is paying around 75 cents per pound. "The export does not reflect the 82 (cents / lb). They look at December and see the price to 74 [cents / lb]," he said.
Cunha also said that about 250 tons of this crop have been sold in the futures market below 68 cents per pound. "But we still have much cotton to sell," adds the analyst.
Waiver of Abrapa indicates a production for this crop of 1.3 million tons of product for domestic consumption of 950 tons and exports of 400 thousand tons. "Today the producer has in hand an average of 80 thousand tons of cotton, but has no quality," he says.
Cunha for the concern of the industry is focused on 2011 harvest. He said the price for future contracts for July will be 77.00 cents / lb. "Much less than in 2010, according to the estimated increase planting world," he said.
President Abrapa also believes that the Brazilian crop 2010/2011 must enter the year with at least 50% sold at an average of 75 cents per pound. "In Brazil we anticipate a 20% increase in cotton production," he says.
For the analyst, the country has the potential to advance from 30 to 40%, but this would only be possible if the price reached 90 cents a pound.
According Biegai, the Brazilian producer is able, knowledge and infrastructure to expand production. "The increase of 20% is 180 thousand hectares, it is not much. To get an idea if we grow 30%, the country will return the amount of area two to three years ago," he calculates.
Recent survey by the National Supply Company (Conab) estimates a harvest of 3.168.8 million tonnes of cotton seed and 1.238.2, lint.
With the global economic crisis, triggered two years ago, according to the analyst, Brazil was reduced in size. "Since then we are in the process of recovery," believes.
Also according to data from the National Supply Company, the North-Northeast (Maranhão and Piauí) was the region that showed a reduction in area, 6.1%, compared to the previous harvest. In Bahia, in the western state of reduction of area was 5.8%. In the State of Sao Paulo and also there was a drop area and Paraná cotton production is practically extinct.
Source: www.noticiasagricolas.com.br
|
